Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Dynamic Narration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dynamic Narration Strategy game?

Strategy + Dynamic Narration

Of 52 developers who shipped a Dynamic Narration Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×731 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 107 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 107 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Dynamic Narration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $24k → $2.4k → $3.7k → $1.5k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Dynamic Narration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $459k (exactly $458,816)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 119
Announced 107
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dynamic Narration
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Dynamic Narration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 9,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
All Quiet in the Trenches · EA older $24.99 921 90% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Totally Not Aliens
Foretales older $19.99 779 87% 23k $467k (exactly $467,166) Alkemi
Ludus Magnatus: Gladiator Manager Simulator · EA $24.99 612 81% 18k $459k (exactly $458,816) Contec Games
Corruption Town · EA $14.99 992 88% 30k $446k (exactly $446,102) BoredBasmati
Witchy Business $14.99 865 86% 26k $389k (exactly $388,990) Rogue Duck Interactive
Massage With Benefits $9.99 175 84% 5.3k $52k (exactly $52,448) pasunna
Medieval Legacy $19.99 66 86% 2.0k $40k (exactly $39,580) Ninetoplay
The Killing Stone · EA $12.99 79 94% 2.4k $31k (exactly $30,786) Question
HAMSTERMIND $12.99 73 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,448) Righteous Tree
Observe · EA $7.99 74 91% 2.2k $18k (exactly $17,738) Kisotik Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.