Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Driving game?

Driving + Visual Novel

Only 11 developers shipped a Visual Novel Driving game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Promise Mascot Agency, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.4k against a market of $630. 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 14 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Driving + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $162k (exactly $161,935)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 30
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 90% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Visual Novel
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 4,030 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $160k, 1 in 20 over $1.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Lost older $2.50 7,423 80% 223k $557k (exactly $556,725) DSGame
Race of Life - Act 1 $13.99 1,183 94% 35k $497k (exactly $496,505) Underground Studio
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
Garfield Kart 2 - All You Can Drift $24.99 216 45% 6.5k $162k (exactly $161,935) Eden Games
Wheels of Aurelia older $14.99 135 49% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Santa Ragione
Hot & Lewd: Miami older $9.99 98 84% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,371) Lust Desires 🖤
Firebird older $11.99 68 100% 2.0k $24k (exactly $24,460) Ludogram, FibreTigre, Quentin Vijoux
HeatStroke older $1.99 199 89% 6.0k $12k (exactly $11,880) Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Ba… (Talia bob Mair, Matt Garnett, Braden Banning)
Designated Driver Simulator · EA $17.99 16 62% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) PostSIM
Truck Town: Kids and Toddlers Driving Game $14.99 9 77% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Crater Studios
Дейтсим Говна $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) Traxmaster Productions
Sunset Drive $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Klapanom Games
Spirit Driver $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Stellar Horse Studios
Misery Avenue $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Miseryous Games
Jeepney Stories $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Kuyi Mobile

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.