Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving Shooter?

Driving + Shooter

Of 82 developers who shipped a Driving Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 172 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2564 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 172 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 172 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $900 → $657 → $300 → $6.9k → $1.8k → $1.1k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,559)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,290)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 296
Announced 172
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 329,931 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 172 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Watch_Dogs™ older $19.99 49,193 79% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,501,042) Ubisoft
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
SimplePlanes 2 · EA $19.99 1,316 92% 39k $789k (exactly $789,205) Jundroo, LLC
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.
Vivat Slovakia $19.99 827 50% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Team Vivat
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.