Do I ship it?

Games › Driving › Driving + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Driving game?

Driving + Post-apocalyptic

Of 51 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1021 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 115 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $5.7k → $148k → $9.3k → $5.5k → $2.2k → $4.0k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,771)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,482)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 124
Announced 115
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 26,423 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 6 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mad Max 2015 · $35M The Long Drive 2019 · EA · $24M Pacific Drive 2024 · $19M Drive Beyond Horizons 2025 · EA · $13M FAR: Lone Sails 2018 · $11M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator older $19.99 1,556 78% 47k $933k (exactly $933,133) IndieMax
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
The Slaverian Trucker $11.99 789 85% 24k $284k (exactly $283,803) SawyerK Games
Another Try 2 · EA $6.99 1,000 53% 30k $210k (exactly $209,700) Hoki Wolf Studio
Long Drive North: Co-Op RV Simulator · EA $14.99 254 41% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Mindflair Games LTD
Dust Raiders $15.99 160 64% 4.8k $77k (exactly $76,752) Vixa Games
Nightmare Drive · EA $14.99 156 78% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Voidfiller

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.