Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Driving game?

Driving + Mystery

Of 25 developers who shipped a Mystery Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $25k, ×41 the market median. Revenue is up 385% on the market; 37 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 385% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $900 → $5.9k → $5.3k → $4.8k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,160)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,930)
Top 5% $25k (exactly $25,474)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 49
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 385% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Investigation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 987 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $25k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
Fears to Fathom - Woodbury Getaway older $9.99 3,470 86% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,039,959) Rayll Studios
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
Titan Chaser older $4.99 1,000 82% 30k $150k (exactly $149,700) Stas Shostak
Summer Catchers older $8.99 347 80% 10k $94k (exactly $93,586) FaceIT
Amok Runner older $9.99 185 60% 5.6k $55k (exactly $55,444) Gamedeus
Backseat $9.99 85 71% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) HOGO Games
Terrors to Unveil - Day Off $4.99 105 68% 3.2k $16k (exactly $15,718) Psycho
Endless Suburbia older $4.99 91 64% 2.7k $14k (exactly $13,623) Horrid Vision LLC
Stardiver older $11.99 33 51% 990 $12k (exactly $11,870) Green Planet Games
Junkyard Fury 3 $14.99 25 92% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Dhood Gaming
Forest Ranger Services: Episode 2 $3.99 58 82% 1.7k $6.9k (exactly $6,943) GuardHouse
CyberpunkXXX $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) GAMERFLEX Studios
Raccoon on a boat $5.99 33 60% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) PUMPKIM
Homeostasis $8.99 20 85% 600 $5.4k (exactly $5,394) Gasimo, Saas
Geamana Village $6.25 28 75% 840 $5.3k (exactly $5,250) Chainwolf Studio, Otozip
DayOff: Moonriver incident $6.99 23 91% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) jetzackgames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.