Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Multiple Endings

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Multiple Endings Driving game?

Driving + Multiple Endings

Only 19 developers shipped a Multiple Endings Driving game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Keep Driving, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5318 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 32 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Multiple Endings
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $4.0k → $39k → $2.4k → $1.3k → $958 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Multiple Endings: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,242)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 53
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Multiple Endings; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 8,136 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $960, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Keep Driving $17.99 6,188 93% 186k $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664) YCJY Games
Lake older $19.99 4,484 87% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,689,055) Gamious
Race of Life - Act 1 $13.99 1,183 94% 35k $497k (exactly $496,505) Underground Studio
Border Officer older $9.99 1,294 57% 39k $388k (exactly $387,812) Cheesecake Dev
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
Brno Transit $8.99 589 85% 18k $159k (exactly $158,853) Spytihněv
Dating Simulator older $4.99 417 55% 13k $62k (exactly $62,425) piratecat games
Wheels of Aurelia older $14.99 135 49% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Santa Ragione
Dude Simulator 4 older $4.99 342 58% 10k $51k (exactly $51,197) Kiddy
Backseat $9.99 85 71% 2.6k $25k (exactly $25,474) HOGO Games
Junkyard Fury 3 $14.99 25 92% 750 $11k (exactly $11,242) Dhood Gaming
Geamana Village $6.25 28 75% 840 $5.3k (exactly $5,250) Chainwolf Studio, Otozip
Snowscape $4.99 16 93% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) Cosnow, Yim Sang Woo, parser, MEADOWS95
Real Car Parking Simulator $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) FortStar
Sunset Drive $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Klapanom Games
Victor Lawson $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) 1tempobro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.