Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Driving game?

Driving + Modern

Of 38 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.6k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×16418 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 53 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 53 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $717k → $62k → $95k → $62k → $11k → $4.6k → $6.0k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,888)
Median $8.6k (exactly $8,633)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,052)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,310,721)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 112
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Simulation, Automobile Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 53,330 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $8.6k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 6 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
Test Drive Unlimited Solar Crown older $49.99 6,536 38% 196k $9.8M (exactly $9,802,039) KT Racing
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Bus Simulator 21 Next Stop older $24.99 3,984 74% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,986,805) stillalive studios
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Dakar Desert Rally older $29.99 1,475 56% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,058) Saber Porto Ltd.
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
Into The Flames older $19.99 1,548 80% 46k $928k (exactly $928,336) Fully Involved Game Studios
Instruments of Destruction older $19.99 1,429 91% 43k $857k (exactly $856,971) Radiangames
Bus Bound $29.99 886 72% 27k $797k (exactly $797,134) stillalive studios
Train Sim World® 7 $49.99 278 74% 8.3k $417k (exactly $416,917) Dovetail Games
Rancher: A new life · EA $19.99 265 64% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Sim Farm S.A.
Rent A Car Simulator 24 $12.99 154 53% 4.6k $60k (exactly $60,014) 2MEDYA
Vending Machine Business Simulator $8.99 193 74% 5.8k $52k (exactly $52,052) Crow Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.