Games › Driving › Driving + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Driving game?
Driving + Heist
Only 11 developers shipped a Heist Driving game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Precinct, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $7.0M, ×11228 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $718 (exactly $718) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,352) |
| Top 25% | $355k (exactly $354,608) |
| Top 5% | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 20 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Driving
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 84% positive over 14,615 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Psychological HorrorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Survival HorrorFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MusicFair
- + ThrillerFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + LogicFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + AutomationPoor odds
Comparable games
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M 
The Precinct 2025 · $7.1M 
Thief Simulator 2 2023 · $3.9M 
Crime Simulator 2025 · $2.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
| | The Precinct | $29.99 | 7,837 87% | 235k | $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) | Fallen Tree Games Ltd | |
| | Thief Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 6,568 87% | 197k | $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) | CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A. |
| | Crime Simulator | $14.99 | 6,244 82% | 187k | $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) | CookieDev | |
 | Thief Simulator VR | older | $19.99 | 1,368 69% | 41k | $820k (exactly $820,390) | GameBoom VR |
 | American Theft 80s | older | $19.99 | 1,029 73% | 31k | $617k (exactly $617,091) | Noble Muffins |
 | It's Only Money | $24.99 | 473 78% | 14k | $355k (exactly $354,608) | Usual Suspects Studios | |
 | Last Holiday | · EA older | $29.99 | 387 40% | 12k | $348k (exactly $348,184) | Boomer Games s.r.o. |
 | Crash Time 2 | older | $4.99 | 1,170 63% | 35k | $175k (exactly $175,149) | · |
 | Gauley : Experience Nepal | · EA | $14.99 | 18 88% | 540 | $8.1k (exactly $8,095) | Ashim Shakya |
 | No Knock | $9.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | No Knock | |
 | Miami Horizon 2077 | $4.90 | 16 75% | 480 | $2.4k (exactly $2,352) | CJ | |
 | Heist Haven | · EA | $12.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | Somehow Games |
 | Smoke Shop Simulator | · EA | $3.99 | 6 0% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | Anka Games |
 | Night Maniac: The Origin Of Steven | $7.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $240 (exactly $240) | Diego Victor | |
 | Rob & Go | $4.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Gamecreame |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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