Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Driving game?

Driving + Dystopian

Of 20 developers who shipped a Dystopian Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×28785 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $719 → $22k → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 25% $132k (exactly $131,650)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,077,080)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 46
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvP, Racing
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 23,826 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Screamer $59.99 1,039 80% 31k $1.9M (exactly $1,869,888) Milestone S.r.l.
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
Get To Work $12.99 3,456 88% 104k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803) Isto Inc.
Landlord's Super older $19.99 1,442 80% 43k $865k (exactly $864,767) Minskworks
Pacer older $39.99 576 72% 17k $691k (exactly $691,027) R8 Games Ltd
Border Officer older $9.99 1,294 57% 39k $388k (exactly $387,812) Cheesecake Dev
XF Extreme Formula $11.99 366 90% 11k $132k (exactly $131,650) Feperd Games
Gearshifters older $24.99 85 80% 2.6k $64k (exactly $63,724) Red Phantom Games
CyberTaxi: Lunatic Nights · EA $13.99 68 55% 2.0k $29k (exactly $28,540) Hed Media Games
Nitroglycerine! $4.99 146 86% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Avoidance
Cyber Clutch: Hot Import Nights $19.99 21 61% 630 $13k (exactly $12,594) Gunpowder Games, Focuspoint Studios
Synthwave Driver · EA $2.99 107 86% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Runebox Studios
CyberpunkXXX $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) GAMERFLEX Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.