Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Strategy game?

Strategy + Dragons

Of 95 developers who shipped a Dragon Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×669 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 185 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 185 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $718 → $600 → $2.6k → $1.5k → $2.3k → $3.6k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,195)
Top 5% $420k (exactly $420,020)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 261
Announced 185
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Strategy, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 47,547 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition older $29.99 28,721 85% 862k $26M (exactly $25,840,284) BioWare
Dragon Age™ Inquisition older $39.99 19,162 75% 575k $23M (exactly $22,988,651) BioWare
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Kingdom Rush 5: Alliance TD older $19.99 10,363 87% 311k $6.2M (exactly $6,214,691) Ironhide Game Studio
Divinity: Dragon Commander older $39.99 1,976 73% 59k $2.4M (exactly $2,370,607) Larian Studios
Brigandine The Legend of Runersia older $39.99 1,331 85% 40k $1.6M (exactly $1,596,801) Happinet, Matrix
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Driftland: The Magic Revival older $19.99 1,439 73% 43k $863k (exactly $862,968) Star Drifters
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.