Do I ship it?

GamesManagementManagement + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Management game?

Management + Detective

Of 21 developers who shipped a Detective Management game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×157 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 55 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 55 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Management + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $4.5k → $2.2k → $1.3k → $898 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Management + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,691)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $98,594)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 53
Announced 55
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Management; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Hidden Object
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,006 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Management with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair21 devs · median $64k · 23 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair195 devs · median $17k · 225 announced
  3. + WesternFair18 devs · median $13k · 22 announced
  4. + Artificial IntelligenceFair114 devs · median $12k · 154 announced
  5. + JRPGFair37 devs · median $9.4k · 35 announced
  6. + MinigamesFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  7. + RhythmFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $5.0k · 54 announced
  9. + CollectathonFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  10. + DwarvesFair13 devs · median $3.2k · 18 announced
  11. + 3D FighterFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  12. + IncrementalFair611 devs · median $1.9k · 893 announced

All 214 pairs on the Management page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
This Is the Police older $14.99 9,153 82% 275k $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) Weappy Studio
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Wax Heads $14.99 508 96% 15k $228k (exactly $228,448) Patattie Games
Black Closet older $19.99 246 91% 7.4k $148k (exactly $147,526) Hanako Games
Staffer Reborn older $4.99 959 95% 29k $144k (exactly $143,562) Team Tetrapod
Interrogation: You will be deceived older $12.99 321 77% 9.6k $125k (exactly $125,094) Critique Gaming
SCP Strategy older $6.99 556 78% 17k $117k (exactly $116,593) LUXO Interactive
Airport X-Ray Simulator · EA $12.99 253 80% 7.6k $99k (exactly $98,594) Rainbow Lab
Company of Crime older $19.99 143 51% 4.3k $86k (exactly $85,757) Resistance Games
LAN Party Adventures $14.99 93 89% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) LEAP Game Studios
Prescribe and Pray $11.99 71 70% 2.1k $26k (exactly $25,539) Nuclear Rabbits
The Paddock $5.99 17 88% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Josh Devlin
Night Shift $2.99 30 66% 900 $2.7k (exactly $2,691) Cyber752
Bump in the Night · EA $14.99 5 100% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Elzolabs
Antidote to despair $8.99 7 85% 210 $1.9k (exactly $1,888) Gamet
Ghost Hunter Simulator · EA $14.99 3 100% 90 $1.3k (exactly $1,349) Prime8 Entertainment, https://www.prime… (Prime8 Entertainment, https://www.prime8entertainment.com)
Black Border 2 $1.99 19 63% 570 $1.1k (exactly $1,134) Bitzooma

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.