Do I ship it?

GamesWalking SimulatorWalking Simulator + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Walking Simulator?

Walking Simulator + Crime

Of 77 developers who shipped a Crime Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×248 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 85 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 85 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Walking Simulator + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $720k → $3.0k → $10k → $5.1k → $4.9k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Walking Simulator + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,672)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,718)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,838)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 159
Announced 85
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Walking Simulator; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Investigation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 14,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Walking Simulator with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds13 devs · median $5.8k · 9 announced
  2. + WarFair10 devs · median $5.1k · 12 announced
  3. + RomanceFair36 devs · median $3.5k · 38 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair38 devs · median $2.7k · 25 announced
  5. + ThrillerFair449 devs · median $2.7k · 499 announced
  6. + MusicFair16 devs · median $2.1k · 20 announced
  7. + SupernaturalFair297 devs · median $1.8k · 354 announced
  8. + Psychological HorrorFair1,043 devs · median $1.7k · 1,251 announced
  9. + PsychologicalFair442 devs · median $1.7k · 552 announced
  10. + IdlerFair38 devs · median $1.7k · 41 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  12. + NoirFair44 devs · median $1.5k · 52 announced

All 145 pairs on the Walking Simulator page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crime Scene Cleaner older $29.99 32,469 98% 974k $29M (exactly $29,212,359) President Studio
Murdered: Soul Suspect older $19.99 12,051 87% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,226,985) Airtight Games
Thief Simulator 2 older $19.99 6,568 87% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A.
This Bed We Made older $24.99 3,187 90% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) Lowbirth Games
Fears to Fathom - Ironbark Lookout older $9.99 6,081 92% 182k $1.8M (exactly $1,822,476) Rayll Studios
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
Fears to Fathom - Woodbury Getaway older $9.99 3,470 86% 104k $1.0M (exactly $1,039,959) Rayll Studios
Prison Escape Simulator: Dig Out $7.99 3,490 85% 105k $837k (exactly $836,553) Digital Melody
Thief Simulator VR older $19.99 1,368 69% 41k $820k (exactly $820,390) GameBoom VR
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
The Skin Stapler $14.99 457 90% 14k $206k (exactly $205,513) Tainted Pact
The Boba Teashop $4.99 1,041 95% 31k $156k (exactly $155,838) Mike Ten
Cursed Digicam | 呪われたデジカメ $7.99 611 78% 18k $146k (exactly $146,457) Chilla's Art
Dread Neighbor $5.99 420 81% 13k $75k (exactly $75,474) Ghostcase
Dream Cage $7.99 298 63% 8.9k $71k (exactly $71,431) Hitori De Productions
Secrets of Blackrock Manor - Escape Room $9.99 222 80% 6.7k $67k (exactly $66,533) Biri Biri
Miami Paradise 2 $14.99 131 94% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Entropy Digital Entertainment
[HERROR] Gas Station Case $5.99 281 96% 8.4k $50k (exactly $50,496) [HERROR]

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.