Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Driving game?

Driving + Crime

Of 48 developers who shipped a Crime Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 77 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.8M, ×4471 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 77 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 77 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $1.8M → $3.5k → $496k → $1.9k → $6.6k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,625)
Top 25% $288k (exactly $287,904)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 94
Announced 77
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Open World, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 317,266 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.3k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $2.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.3k. 5 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 77 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Mafia II (Classic) older $29.99 36,389 92% 1.1M $33M (exactly $32,739,183) 2K Czech
Grand Theft Auto: Vice City – The Definitive Edition older $59.99 9,037 82% 271k $16M (exactly $16,263,889) Rockstar Games
Need for Speed™ Most Wanted older $19.99 25,197 77% 756k $15M (exactly $15,110,641) Criterion Games
Need for Speed™ Hot Pursuit Remastered older $29.99 13,583 81% 407k $12M (exactly $12,220,625) Stellar Entertainment Limited
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Saints Row older $29.99 5,765 61% 173k $5.2M (exactly $5,186,770) Volition
Mafia older $14.99 8,896 90% 267k $4.0M (exactly $4,000,531) Illusion Softworks
Thief Simulator 2 older $19.99 6,568 87% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A.
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Promise Mascot Agency $24.99 2,569 96% 77k $1.9M (exactly $1,925,979) Kaizen Game Works
Fears to Fathom® - Scratch Creek $7.99 7,141 75% 214k $1.7M (exactly $1,711,698) Rayll
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
Race of Life - Act 1 $13.99 1,183 94% 35k $497k (exactly $496,505) Underground Studio
Vivat Slovakia $19.99 827 50% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Team Vivat
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.