Do I ship it?

GamesGrand StrategyGrand Strategy + Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Grand Strategy?

Grand Strategy + Combat

Of 43 developers who shipped a Combat Grand Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×2.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×129 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 79 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 79 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Grand Strategy + Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $31k → $1.8k → $360 → $81k → $3.1k → $4.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Grand Strategy + Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,069)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,390)
Top 5% $193k (exactly $192,667)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 125
Announced 79
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Grand Strategy
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Grand Strategy, Combat; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 1,983 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Grand Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RoguelikeFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  2. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 26 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  4. + CrimeFair8 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + RacingFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 27 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceLong shot21 devs · median $750 · 38 announced
  8. + TabletopLong shot26 devs · median $450 · 26 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $131k · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxPoor odds59 devs · median $51k · 125 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $37k · 29 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds54 devs · median $34k · 117 announced

All 104 pairs on the Grand Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Distant Worlds 2 older $49.99 2,653 72% 80k $4.0M (exactly $3,978,704) CodeForce
Carrier Command 2 older $29.99 3,444 82% 103k $3.1M (exactly $3,098,567) Geometa
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Power & Revolution 2022 Edition older $49.99 815 60% 24k $1.2M (exactly $1,222,256) Eversim
Power & Revolution 2021 Edition older $49.99 629 56% 19k $943k (exactly $943,311) Eversim
Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty · EA older $16.99 1,708 69% 51k $871k (exactly $870,568) 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games)
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Elemental: Reforged $29.99 478 73% 14k $430k (exactly $430,057) Stardock Entertainment
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Bellfortis $19.99 141 90% 4.2k $85k (exactly $84,558) Rake in Grass
Fall of an Empire $29.99 80 67% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) JG Games
Nations · EA $14.99 141 89% 4.2k $63k (exactly $63,408) Krzysztof Steiner
Countryballs: Power Protocol $9.99 168 79% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) KNK DEVELOP
City States: Medieval $19.99 48 68% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Reverie World Studios
Astro Protocol $11.99 66 93% 2.0k $24k (exactly $23,740) Null Vector Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.