Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Strategy game?

Strategy + Collectathon

Of 170 developers who shipped a Collectathon Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 247 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×223 the market median. Revenue is up 235% on the market; 247 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 235% on the market, 247 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 170
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $2.4k → $11k → $599 → $479 → $719 → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 170
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $7.9k (exactly $7,907)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,330)
Developers, 2 yr 170
Released games 416
Announced 247
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 235% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 33,999 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $960, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 96 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 247 games are announced against 103 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cookie Clicker older $4.99 87,916 96% 2.6M $13M (exactly $13,161,025) Orteil, DashNet
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Coromon older $19.99 6,327 85% 190k $3.8M (exactly $3,794,302) TRAGsoft
Shelldiver $4.99 16,806 98% 504k $2.5M (exactly $2,515,858) Gagonfe
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Mega Man Star Force Legacy Collection $39.99 657 96% 20k $788k (exactly $788,203) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games
Monster Lab Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) Round 3 Studios
Budgie's Bug Shop $5.99 1,016 96% 30k $183k (exactly $182,575) Moon Lagoon
Captain Whiskers: Incremental Seas $5.99 886 85% 27k $159k (exactly $159,214) Happy Universe Studios
While Waiting $19.99 234 75% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Optillusion

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.