Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Tactics City Builder?

City Builder + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 69 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Tactics City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×412 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 87 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 87 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $807 → $3.2k → $7.7k → $6.0k → $1.2k → $1.3k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,586)
Top 5% $259k (exactly $258,543)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 163
Announced 87
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Turn-Based Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 52% positive over 51,286 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Dorfromantik older $13.99 27,441 96% 823k $12M (exactly $11,516,988) Toukana Interactive
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
Master of Magic older $39.99 1,023 71% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Preserve $12.49 690 92% 21k $259k (exactly $258,543) Bitmap Galaxy
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
The Succession of Changing Kings $9.99 487 86% 15k $146k (exactly $145,954) KwaKwaGames
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
TOHOTOPIA · EA $3.99 732 97% 22k $88k (exactly $87,620) Remilia Command

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.