Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat City Builder?

City Builder + Turn-Based Combat

Of 24 developers who shipped a Turn-Based Combat City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.5k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×209 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 315% on the market, 42 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $115k → $269 → $600 → $41k → $359 → $7.0k → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $6.5k (exactly $6,473)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,192)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $131,334)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 58
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Turn-Based Combat; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Exploration, Management
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,974 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $6.5k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Atelier Resleriana: The Red Alchemist & the White Guardian $59.99 714 89% 21k $1.3M (exactly $1,284,986) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Master of Magic older $39.99 1,023 71% 31k $1.2M (exactly $1,227,293) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Rising Lords older $19.99 904 70% 27k $542k (exactly $542,129) Argonwood
Nelke & the Legendary Alchemists ~Ateliers of the New World~ older $59.99 236 77% 7.1k $425k (exactly $424,729) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Nadir: A Grimdark Deckbuilder older $19.99 244 61% 7.3k $146k (exactly $146,327) Black Eye Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
九州:立志 $11.99 235 81% 7.1k $85k (exactly $84,530) Xbgzs
Kaya's Prophecy $13.99 196 70% 5.9k $82k (exactly $82,261) Jérémie & Thibaut
Edge Islands · EA $17.99 93 74% 2.8k $50k (exactly $50,192) LS Games
Toads of the Bayou $9.99 137 72% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,059) La Grange
仙之气 · EA $10.99 114 74% 3.4k $38k (exactly $37,586) 按键工坊
Automatic Kingdom $12.99 28 75% 840 $11k (exactly $10,912) Matthew Pontarolo
TownsFolk $11.99 22 81% 660 $7.9k (exactly $7,913) Short Circuit Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.