Do I ship it?

Games › City Builder › City Builder + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based City Builder?

City Builder + Turn-Based

Only 16 developers shipped a Turn-Based City Builder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition , made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5113 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 21 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $146k → $1.6M → $13k → $131k
Outcomes for City Builder + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Median $13k (exactly $12,529)
Top 25% $373k (exactly $372,827)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 55
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Turn-Based
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 7,796 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $370k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA 2018 · $7.4M Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition 2024 · $3.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA older $19.99 12,326 70% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,391,902) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
Reus 2 older $24.99 2,133 94% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,110) Abbey Games
dotAGE older $17.59 2,560 94% 77k $1.4M (exactly $1,350,912) Michele Pirovano
Sid Meier's Civilization IV: Colonization older $29.99 1,283 87% 38k $1.2M (exactly $1,154,315) Firaxis Games
Sid Meier's Civilization® III Complete older $4.99 5,711 91% 171k $855k (exactly $854,937) Firaxis Games
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
Gnomes $9.99 1,757 94% 53k $527k (exactly $526,573) DYSTOPIAN
Combolands: Roguelike Citybuilder $9.99 1,244 97% 37k $373k (exactly $372,827) Crux Games
Pile Up! $9.99 961 73% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Remoob
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Wizard Warfare 2: Cephalopod Wars $10.99 38 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Psyanotek Limited
Drill Rift $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Steam Veil Games
Seekers of Eclipse $10.99 22 86% 660 $7.3k (exactly $7,253) ThinKING Cat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.