Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading City Builder?

City Builder + Trading

Of 45 developers who shipped a Trading City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 103 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×827 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 103 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 103 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $192k → $4.7k → $4.6k → $14k → $15k → $3.6k → $25k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,091)
Top 25% $85k (exactly $84,530)
Top 5% $520k (exactly $519,542)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 123
Announced 103
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Trading; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 6,854 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $84k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 103 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Pharaoh™: A New Era older $22.99 4,811 75% 144k $3.3M (exactly $3,318,147) Triskell Interactive
Railway Empire 2 older $49.99 1,966 72% 59k $2.9M (exactly $2,948,410) Gaming Minds Studios
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Thriving City: Song older $18.99 3,054 81% 92k $1.7M (exactly $1,739,864) White Star Studio
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Hotel Renovator older $24.99 2,223 77% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,666,583) Two Horizons
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Let Them Trade $17.99 1,070 84% 32k $577k (exactly $577,479) Spaceflower
Synergy $24.99 693 79% 21k $520k (exactly $519,542) Leikir Studio
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Super Movie Tycoon $16.99 323 73% 9.7k $165k (exactly $164,633) Yuedong Game
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Creator Chronicles $11.99 424 64% 13k $153k (exactly $152,513) Origin Studio
Tlatoani: Aztec Cities $19.99 180 83% 5.4k $108k (exactly $107,946) Perspective Games, Bellwood Studios
Entertainment Simulator $18.99 181 73% 5.4k $103k (exactly $103,116) Grizzbera Studio
Project Rebearth $17.99 184 70% 5.5k $99k (exactly $99,305) Program Sam

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.