Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation City Builder?

City Builder + Simulation

Of 555 developers who shipped a Simulation City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,042 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2855 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 1,042 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 20% on the market, 1,042 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 555
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $9.7k → $11k → $7.7k → $9.6k → $5.2k → $11k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 555
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,587)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $94,753)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103)
Developers, 2 yr 555
Released games 1,648
Announced 1,042
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Simulation; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Strategy, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 220,489 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 284 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,042 games are announced against 317 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Planet Coaster older $44.99 59,443 91% 1.8M $80M (exactly $80,230,217) Frontier Developments, Aspyr (Mac)
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Planet Coaster 2 $49.99 13,047 74% 391k $20M (exactly $19,566,586) Frontier Developments
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.