Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Real-Time

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Real-Time City Builder?

City Builder + Real-Time

Only 9 developers shipped a Real-Time City Builder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Endzone 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $230k against a market of $630. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 367.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 18 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Real-Time
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for City Builder + Real-Time: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Median $231k (exactly $230,702)
Top 25% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Top 5% $804k (exactly $804,332)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 47
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Real-Time
Price point
$17.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 326,330 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $63k, median $230k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $63k. 2 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Rise of Nations: Extended Edition older $19.99 13,358 94% 401k $8.0M (exactly $8,010,793) SkyBox Labs, Big Huge Games
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Endzone - A World Apart older $24.99 8,311 76% 249k $6.2M (exactly $6,230,757) Gentlymad Studios
Ancestors Legacy older $34.99 5,794 80% 174k $6.1M (exactly $6,081,962) Destructive Creations
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Endzone 2 $29.99 894 65% 27k $804k (exactly $804,332) Gentlymad Studios
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Builders of Egypt $19.99 461 31% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Strategy Labs
Mini Settlers $12.99 592 85% 18k $231k (exactly $230,702) Knight Owl Games
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Final Outpost: Definitive Edition $9.99 208 76% 6.2k $62k (exactly $62,338) Exabyte Games
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury
TFC2: The Fertile Crescent 2 - Collapse of The Bronze Age · EA $17.99 33 81% 990 $18k (exactly $17,810) Wield Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.