Do I ship it?

Games › City Builder › City Builder + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics City Builder?

City Builder + Physics

Of 29 developers who shipped a Physics City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1808 the market median. Revenue is up 2255% on the market; 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 2255% on the market, 50 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.4k → $719 → $179 → $16k → $288k (still earning) → $33k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $192k (exactly $191,737)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 72
Announced 50
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2255% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Physics; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Simulation, Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 44,178 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $190k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Timberborn 2026 · $40M Construction Simulator 2022 · $8.0M ALL WILL FALL 2026 · $1.1M Marble World 2022 · $760k Tracks - The Train Set Game 2019 · $727k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Construction Simulator older $24.99 10,606 82% 318k $8.0M (exactly $7,951,318) weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
Marble World older $19.99 1,268 89% 38k $760k (exactly $760,420) Vector Interactive
Tracks - The Train Set Game older $19.99 1,212 93% 36k $727k (exactly $726,836) Whoop Group
City Transport Simulator 2026 - Bus & Tram $39.99 526 73% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) ViewApp
Subway Builder $39.99 394 59% 12k $473k (exactly $472,682) Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher,… (Colin Miller, EJ Fox, Curran Kelleher, Nate Maue, Alex Wohlbruck, Piero Maddaleni, Brooks Flannery)
Railroad Corporation 2 $39.99 376 69% 11k $451k (exactly $451,087) Corbie Games
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
GolfTopia older $19.99 477 95% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) MinMax Games Ltd.
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
Aquapark Tycoon · EA $22.99 278 89% 8.3k $192k (exactly $191,737) Boxelware
拖拖拉拉小菲镇 $1.99 1,528 98% 46k $91k (exactly $91,222) LuzhangGames
Genesis of a Small God $17.99 61 80% 1.8k $33k (exactly $32,922) Pierre Nury

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.