Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler City Builder?

City Builder + Idler

Of 95 developers who shipped an Idler City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×758 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 147 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 147 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $657 → $9.7k → $1.9k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $594 (exactly $594)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,076)
Top 5% $476k (exactly $475,924)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 174
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Management, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 13,698 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 63 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Farm Manager 2021 older $19.99 2,296 79% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,911) Cleversan Games
Microcivilization $17.99 1,437 78% 43k $776k (exactly $775,549) Ondrej Homola
Crusaders Quest : Hero Town $6.99 2,564 76% 77k $538k (exactly $537,671) CQ LABS
Hearth and Hamlet $7.99 2,050 79% 62k $491k (exactly $491,385) Phorust Studios
Birdwatching Notebook $9.99 1,588 97% 48k $476k (exactly $475,924) Biekka Games
IDLE BOSS RUSH $9.99 820 66% 25k $246k (exactly $245,754) Irid Games
My Little Life $5.99 1,043 89% 31k $187k (exactly $187,427) 9FingerGames
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Factory Town Idle older $4.99 1,232 90% 37k $184k (exactly $184,430) Erik Asmussen
Berserk B.I.T.S $6.99 667 81% 20k $140k (exactly $139,870) BerserkBoy Games
STARIO: Haven Tower · EA $13.99 280 93% 8.4k $118k (exactly $117,516) Stargate Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.