Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid City Builder?

City Builder + Hex Grid

Of 40 developers who shipped a Hex Grid City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×248 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 60 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.9k → $11k → $3.3k → $8.2k → $3.3k → $3.9k → $1.6k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,873)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,922)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 90
Announced 60
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Hex Grid; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 49% positive over 46,088 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Before We Leave older $19.99 1,278 78% 38k $766k (exactly $766,417) Balancing Monkey Games
Ozymandias: Bronze Age Empire Sim older $14.99 1,306 89% 39k $587k (exactly $587,308) The Secret Games Company
Rising Lords older $19.99 904 70% 27k $542k (exactly $542,129) Argonwood
Deity Empires older $24.99 333 86% 10k $250k (exactly $249,650) BaileyHausdorff Systems
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Yield! Fall of Rome $19.99 219 69% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) Billionworlds
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
Mistward $11.99 74 59% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Sokpop Collective
Qianli: The Vastscape Scroll $9.99 79 86% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Betobe Studio
Skyline Urban Story $6.99 106 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,228) PandaUpStudio
Wild City $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Monka Studios
ShoreTiles $6.99 90 74% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) Voxel Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.