Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Driving game?

Driving + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 21 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3427 the market median. Revenue is up 6020% on the market; 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 6020% on the market, 38 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $348k → $1.6k → $5.8k → $716 → $299 → $8.6k → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $716 (exactly $716)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 69
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6020% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Building, Life Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 24,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Lake older $19.99 4,484 87% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,689,055) Gamious
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
Wrench · EA older $29.99 1,898 84% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,707,631) Missing Digit
Apex Point · EA older $18.99 1,832 86% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,043,690) Apex Studio
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator older $19.99 1,556 78% 47k $933k (exactly $933,133) IndieMax
Caravanners · EA $17.99 712 35% 21k $384k (exactly $384,266) Akif Akdemir
Heading Out older $19.99 639 74% 19k $383k (exactly $383,208) Serious Sim, Crunching Koalas
Drunkard Simulator · EA $14.99 46 34% 1.4k $21k (exactly $20,686) O.S.D.
Scrap Dealer Simulator $6.99 58 72% 1.7k $12k (exactly $12,163) Emre Şahin
WorldDrive: Real Open-World Driving Simulator · EA $19.99 17 35% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) AJ Simulation & Engineering
Build For Sale Simulator · EA $8.99 32 46% 960 $8.6k (exactly $8,630) Paragon Game Studio
Low and Furious · EA $6.99 15 100% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Code IT Game Studio
MEMOLOGY: Absurd racing $0.99 59 94% 1.8k $1.8k (exactly $1,752) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Victor Lawson $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) 1tempobro

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.