Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Choose Your Own Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure City Builder?

City Builder + Choose Your Own Adventure

Of 34 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3672 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 52 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Choose Your Own Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $192k → $359 → $1.4k → $299 → $10k → $29k → $479 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Choose Your Own Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 73
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Choose Your Own Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 17,286 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Celestial Empire · EA $19.99 709 89% 21k $425k (exactly $425,187) President Studio
Slow living with Princess older $19.99 580 87% 17k $348k (exactly $347,826) KADOKAWA, TSUKURITE.
Super Dungeon Maker older $19.99 388 82% 12k $233k (exactly $232,684) FIRECHICK
Korea Dynasty (조선메타실록) · EA older $23.99 267 72% 8.0k $192k (exactly $192,160) Happy Daram Inc.
PuPu's Adventure Park $14.99 130 64% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) 西梅树工作室
Colonize $9.99 192 39% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,542) Rembrosoft
KingSim older $9.99 189 83% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,643) Fuzzy Pixel Game Studio
Mistwinter Bay $29.99 50 84% 1.5k $45k (exactly $44,985) Swordlake Entertainment
Milord · EA $9.99 104 64% 3.1k $31k (exactly $31,169) iBright Games
Heroic Songs: the Remix! $16.99 56 92% 1.7k $29k (exactly $28,543) Emma Create
Undomestic $9.99 34 41% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Tempest Studios
Cult Leader Simulator $17.99 16 50% 480 $8.6k (exactly $8,635) Nhneno

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.