Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Strategy game?

Strategy + Bullet Heaven

Of 63 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×229 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 116 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $315k → $3.0k → $22k → $48k → $7.6k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,594)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,625)
Top 5% $144k (exactly $143,556)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 84
Announced 116
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 335% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Bullet Heaven; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 16,596 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 4 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Rogue: Genesia 2025 · $3.6M Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok 2024 · $1.9M Wanderburg 2026 · EA · $946k Heretic's Fork 2023 · $928k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Rogue: Genesia $14.99 8,111 90% 243k $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) Ouadi Huard
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Wanderburg · EA $14.99 2,103 78% 63k $946k (exactly $945,719) Randwerk
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Mechs V Kaijus - Tower Defense older $12.99 511 83% 15k $199k (exactly $199,137) Doble Punch Games
Pebble Knights · EA $9.99 479 76% 14k $144k (exactly $143,556) 51% Games
Wireworks $6.99 614 89% 18k $129k (exactly $128,756) JJJ
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense $9.99 386 88% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) 001Studio-NSFW
Little Witch Survivors $4.99 543 87% 16k $81k (exactly $81,287) 四月二酱
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Game of Grass $6.99 275 84% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,668) Hipsterdufus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.