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Should I ship a Base Building City Builder?
City Builder + Base Building
Of 418 developers who shipped a Base Building City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 779 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4407 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 779 games are announced against 229 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.6k (exactly $1,618) |
|---|---|
| Median | $10k (exactly $10,190) |
| Top 25% | $160k (exactly $160,066) |
| Top 5% | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 418 |
| Released games | 1,032 |
| Announced | 779 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- City Builder
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- City Builder, Base Building; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Simulation
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 186,895 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 6 in 10 of the 219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 779 games are announced against 229 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelStrong odds
- + LogicFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + RacingLong shot
- + RomePoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + HorrorPoor odds
- + Alternate HistoryPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
Comparable games
RimWorld 2018 · $219M 
Factorio 2020 · $201M 
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M 
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | RimWorld | older | $34.99 | 208,693 97% | 6.3M | $219M (exactly $219,065,042) | Ludeon Studios |
| | Factorio | older | $35.00 | 191,814 97% | 5.8M | $201M (exactly $201,404,700) | Wube Software LTD. |
| | Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 158,931 94% | 4.8M | $167M (exactly $166,829,871) | World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive) |
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | Manor Lords | · EA older | $39.99 | 76,884 84% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $92,237,735) | Slavic Magic |
 | Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition | older | $39.99 | 72,275 85% | 2.2M | $87M (exactly $86,708,318) | World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios) |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 2 | older | $59.99 | 39,644 90% | 1.2M | $71M (exactly $71,347,307) | Frontier Developments |
 | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Prison Architect | older | $29.99 | 59,802 89% | 1.8M | $54M (exactly $53,803,859) | Introversion Software, Double Eleven |
 | Age of Empires II (Retired) | older | $19.99 | 84,818 95% | 2.5M | $51M (exactly $50,865,355) | Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires) |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Farthest Frontier | $34.99 | 24,444 86% | 733k | $26M (exactly $25,658,867) | Crate Entertainment | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Jurassic World Evolution 3 | $59.99 | 11,387 93% | 342k | $20M (exactly $20,493,184) | Frontier Developments | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | Thronefall | $12.99 | 22,966 96% | 689k | $8.9M (exactly $8,949,850) | GrizzlyGames, Mythwright | |
 | Space Haven | $24.99 | 10,267 85% | 308k | $7.7M (exactly $7,697,170) | Bugbyte Ltd. | |
 | The Wandering Village | $29.99 | 7,734 91% | 232k | $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition | $19.99 | 10,627 92% | 319k | $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) | Firefly Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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