Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time Manipulation Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Time Manipulation

Only 11 developers shipped a Time Manipulation Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, COLD VR, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $810, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $16k, ×27 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $809 → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $809 (exactly $809)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,236)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $16,792)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 28
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Time Manipulation
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 82 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $810, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $16k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soundodger 2 older $19.99 185 95% 5.6k $111k (exactly $110,944) Studio Bean
David. older $1.99 581 79% 17k $35k (exactly $34,686) Fermenter Games
PositronX older $19.99 56 71% 1.7k $34k (exactly $33,583) Scorpius Games
COLD VR $19.99 28 60% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) ALLWARE LLC
Beyond Flesh and Blood · EA older $14.99 17 41% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Pixelbomb Games
Ecstatic older $5.99 28 96% 840 $5.0k (exactly $5,032) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Razerwire:Nanowars older $1.99 83 87% 2.5k $5.0k (exactly $4,955) Hammer & Ravens
CYBER92 DATAWAR $9.92 14 50% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,166) Cyber92 Solo Developer
Echobreaker $8.99 12 100% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Upstream Arcade
BoltBreak older $5.99 18 66% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) KomodoBit Games
BACKFIRE $9.99 9 100% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) SQYD.studio
Laserboy VR $3.99 11 100% 330 $1.3k (exactly $1,317) Tuckspace Games
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
Apex Path: BOLT · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Sanswolf
Snow Defense $7.99 1 100% 30 $240 (exactly $240) Saritasa VR Production
Mayday $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) GTD
Protocol:Chrono $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) SilverMoon Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.