Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Collectathon

Only 12 developers shipped a Collectathon Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ENCHAIN, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $56k, ×90 the market median. Revenue is up 1095% on the market; 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1095% on the market, 13 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.8k → $8.8k → $30 → $299 → $599 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $958 (exactly $958)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $56,372)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 43
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1095% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Collectathon
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 123 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $150, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $56k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  6. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  7. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  8. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  10. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds22 devs · median $1.4k · 70 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rise of the Triad: Ludicrous Edition older $19.99 678 93% 20k $407k (exactly $406,597) Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New… (Nightdive Studios, Apogee Software, New Blood Interactive)
ENCHAIN · EA $19.99 94 96% 2.8k $56k (exactly $56,372) mattlawrdev
Just Click The Button older $2.99 341 90% 10k $31k (exactly $30,588) Simon Eftestol
WAIFU IMPACT older $5.99 148 85% 4.4k $27k (exactly $26,596) Mitsuki Game Studio
Anzeigen Simulator · EA older $4.99 59 84% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) SalsaShark Studios
SpearFrog older $24.99 11 81% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Gamesforgames
CASTILLO: The Nine Circles older $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Jackson Clayton
Sugar Tanks older $4.99 29 86% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) EpiXR Games UG
Bring It On! older $4.99 20 65% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Axol Studio, LLC
Emorrior older $4.99 19 73% 570 $2.8k (exactly $2,844) BerilyTeam
IM LOOPY FOR DOOP LOOPS!!! $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) JakeHub, Metater
NOMSTERS $3.99 8 100% 240 $958 (exactly $958) Igor Yakunin
Wave 43 $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Alien Game Studio
Rebloom $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Innocentzebra
Silent Survivor: Under The Crisis $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Silent Dream
Mighty X Arms $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Stale Boi
Bob's Crystals $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) RedFlare game studios
Orangino $0.99 2 100% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Red Sasori
Modavuj Platform $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Modavuj Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.