Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Simulation

Of 62 developers who shipped a Simulation Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 30 developers shipped in the last year and 101 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 195% on the market, 101 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $450 → $1.4k → $836 → $450 → $150 → $208 → $239 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 5% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 264
Announced 101
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 195% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $9.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. Nearly all of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HARD BULLET 2020 · EA · $3.5M Heliborne Collection 2017 · $2.9M Rollerdrome 2022 · $1.3M Vox Machinae 2022 · $1.1M IRON REBELLION 2024 · $579k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Heliborne Collection older $29.99 3,255 76% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,928,524) Klabater
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Oblivity - Find your perfect Sensitivity older $9.99 1,457 81% 44k $437k (exactly $436,663) Poly Games
Infinite Tournament Paintball older $14.99 537 84% 16k $241k (exactly $241,489) FiveTwo Games
Furry Killer older $29.99 241 78% 7.2k $217k (exactly $216,828) Sujikon
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Antivirus Girl $7.99 169 88% 5.1k $41k (exactly $40,509) Chowbie
Trenches VR $14.99 21 66% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Steelkrill Studio
Just Skill Shooter: Catacombs $9.99 17 64% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Gamesforgames
Moorhuhn 2 $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Higgs Games GmbH, GeekPit Studio
Survalker $9.99 14 85% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Gamesforgames
Difficult times 2 $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Skuf vs beer bottle party $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Iron Trails: Outlaw Pursuit · EA $17.99 7 14% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Gloac Games, Gloac

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.