Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Sci-fi

Of 226 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 384 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 136 developers shipped in the last year and 384 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 384 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 226
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $413 → $446 → $899 → $958 → $419 → $1.2k → $449 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 226
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $360 (exactly $360)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $121k (exactly $120,969)
Developers, 2 yr 226
Released games 723
Announced 384
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 86,202 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $360, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 8 in 10 of the 116 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 384 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023 · $10M Quake 2007 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Quake older $9.99 13,962 96% 419k $4.2M (exactly $4,184,411) id Software, Nightdive Studios, Machine… (id Software, Nightdive Studios, MachineGames)
Prodeus older $24.99 5,505 92% 165k $4.1M (exactly $4,127,098) Bounding Box Software Inc.
AMID EVIL older $19.99 6,654 93% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) Indefatigable
Turbo Overkill older $19.99 6,412 94% 192k $3.8M (exactly $3,845,276) Trigger Happy Interactive
Quake II older $9.99 8,526 95% 256k $2.6M (exactly $2,555,242) id Software, Nightdive Studios, Machine… (id Software, Nightdive Studios, MachineGames)
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.