Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Psychological Horror

Only 19 developers shipped a Psychological-Horror Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cheaters Cheetah, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×671 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $3.2k → $7.2k → $2.6k → $1.2k → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,378)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 57
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Fast-Paced, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 1,766 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Ultimate Arena FPS older $17.99 207 55% 6.2k $112k (exactly $111,718) Kenneth Caselli, Gianmarco Rocco
BEAR, VODKA, STALINGRAD!🐻 older $3.99 839 94% 25k $100k (exactly $100,428) Rabotiagi games
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
BEAR, VODKA, FALL OF BERLIN! 🐻 older $3.99 389 92% 12k $47k (exactly $46,563) Rabotiagi games
Skibidi Toilet Hero older $1.89 704 86% 21k $40k (exactly $39,917) Skibidi Toilet Games
Femboy Aim Trainer older $0.99 693 92% 21k $21k (exactly $20,582) Seito Games
UBERSLAUGHTER $9.99 54 87% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) BillyBobCletus
USA 2020 older $1.89 244 78% 7.3k $14k (exactly $13,835) GAMES FOR HUMANS
Spaceflux $4.99 73 57% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,928) Calin Ardelean
Trenches VR $14.99 21 66% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Steelkrill Studio
Escape From Infection Zone $39.99 6 100% 180 $7.2k (exactly $7,198) Funbang
Same Room Same Day $3.99 22 40% 660 $2.6k (exactly $2,633) Bugi Games
Still Space $2.99 13 100% 390 $1.2k (exactly $1,166) Sofa Interactive
Waifu Aim Trainer · EA $0.99 22 81% 660 $653 (exactly $653) Seito Games
HARBINGER - Legacy Edition $5.99 3 66% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Asterik Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.