Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Perma Death

Of 55 developers who shipped a Perma Death Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 93 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 93 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $179 → $418 (still earning) → $149 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $149 (exactly $149)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 5% $136k (exactly $136,005)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 164
Announced 93
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Perma Death; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action Roguelike, Action, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $420, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Star of Providence 2017 · $1.4M Immortal Redneck 2017 · $1.3M Ziggurat 2014 · $1.3M Ziggurat 2 2021 · $969k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Star of Providence older $14.99 3,178 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,429,147) Team D-13
Immortal Redneck older $19.95 2,211 90% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,284) Crema
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
Heretic's Fork older $9.99 3,097 85% 93k $928k (exactly $928,171) 9FingerGames
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
Bing in Wonderland older $8.99 2,020 97% 61k $545k (exactly $544,794) Wanba Studio
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Ogre Chambers 2222 $7.99 254 96% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,884) ANTENNA GAMES
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
SPORTAL $7.99 57 94% 1.7k $14k (exactly $13,663) Sleepwalking Potatoes
BloodDome99 $4.99 79 94% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) Halftone Gaming
SANDRIPPER $5.99 35 91% 1.1k $6.3k (exactly $6,290) Mack

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.