Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Magic

Of 57 developers who shipped a Magic Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $51k, ×82 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 115 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 115 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $450 → $1.3k → $2.5k → $899 → $4.8k → $269 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $52k (exactly $51,548)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 157
Announced 115
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $51k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

AMID EVIL 2019 · $4.0M Ziggurat 2014 · $1.3M Ziggurat 2 2021 · $969k Vellum 2025 · $774k Project Warlock II 2025 · $628k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AMID EVIL older $19.99 6,654 93% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) Indefatigable
Ziggurat older $14.99 2,835 86% 85k $1.3M (exactly $1,274,900) Milkstone Studios
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Project Warlock II $16.99 1,233 80% 37k $628k (exactly $628,460) Buckshot Software
Project Sparrow · EA older $9.99 1,067 88% 32k $320k (exactly $319,780) Inspire Game Studios
QuiVr older $19.99 482 88% 14k $289k (exactly $289,055) Blueteak
AMID EVIL VR older $19.99 262 88% 7.9k $157k (exactly $157,121) Indefatigable, Noah Rayburn, Andre Elij… (Indefatigable, Noah Rayburn, Andre Elijah Immersive)
Skidaddle Skidoodle older $29.99 94 91% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Galactic Geckon
LONE RUIN older $14.99 152 61% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) Cuddle Monster Games
W.A.N.D. Project $9.99 172 68% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) The Knights of Unity
The Last Man Survivor $4.99 279 67% 8.4k $42k (exactly $41,766) Renderise
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Fantasy Quest $49.99 10 100% 300 $15k (exactly $14,997) Funbang
Seth $12.99 36 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $14,029) Chaotic Games
Skyfear · EA $14.99 20 95% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Protoria Studios
NightMare King $4.99 59 83% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) Starmoon Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.