Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Logic

Only 10 developers shipped a Logic Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Glyphica: Typing Survival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 8 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.7k against a market of $630. 8 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 8 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $3.9k → $999
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $999 (exactly $999)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $745,654)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 33
Announced 8
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Pixel Graphics, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,636 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.0k, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.0k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 8 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
Nurose · EA older $9.99 90 87% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Orongto
Ooglians · EA older $1.99 234 63% 7.0k $14k (exactly $13,970) Simon Bäckström
Deadblast older $9.99 15 86% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Gamesforgames
Glass Cannon $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) LisiSoft
Difficult times 2 $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Skuf vs beer bottle party $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Maniac Path 3 $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Gamesforgames
Terranny · EA older $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Terranos Engineering
Revolver Gambit · EA $9.99 8 100% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Welch Antony
Pulslink $6.99 8 75% 240 $1.7k (exactly $1,678) FatCoke
CPU Invaders - Aim Hero $0.99 53 100% 1.6k $1.6k (exactly $1,574) Microblast Games
hazard versus $3.33 10 80% 300 $999 (exactly $999) not mario
TANKEGEDDON! $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Inferno Duck Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.