Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Horror

Of 80 developers who shipped a Horror Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×316 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 75 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $2.4k → $1.3k → $716 → $359 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,198)
Top 5% $199k (exactly $198,747)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 226
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
Quake older $9.99 13,962 96% 419k $4.2M (exactly $4,184,411) id Software, Nightdive Studios, Machine… (id Software, Nightdive Studios, MachineGames)
Prodeus older $24.99 5,505 92% 165k $4.1M (exactly $4,127,098) Bounding Box Software Inc.
Quake II older $9.99 8,526 95% 256k $2.6M (exactly $2,555,242) id Software, Nightdive Studios, Machine… (id Software, Nightdive Studios, MachineGames)
Devil Daggers older $9.99 7,442 96% 223k $2.2M (exactly $2,230,367) Sorath
WRATH: Aeon of Ruin older $24.99 1,975 75% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,480,658) KillPixel Games, Slipgate Ironworks
Quake 4 older $14.99 3,115 87% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,400,816) RavenSoft, id Software
Half-Life Deathmatch: Source older $9.99 4,361 74% 131k $1.3M (exactly $1,306,992) Valve
Alien Shooter older $4.99 3,919 95% 118k $587k (exactly $586,674) Sigma Team Inc.
Painkiller: Black Edition older $9.99 1,928 89% 58k $578k (exactly $577,822) People Can Fly
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
Kvark $19.99 461 86% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Latest Past, Perun Creative
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
HELLBREAK $14.99 275 76% 8.3k $124k (exactly $123,668) Double Barrel Games
Golden Chambers · EA $19.99 195 80% 5.9k $117k (exactly $116,941) Mr. Pink
Devilated $19.99 163 85% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Trunka
Midnight Murder Club $9.99 304 71% 9.1k $91k (exactly $91,109) Velan Studios
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
MeowGun: Hell Denizen $12.99 114 98% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,426) SusaDeBastet

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.