Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Historical

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Historical

Only 12 developers shipped a Historical Arena Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cloud Keeper: Shrine of Dal, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 12 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $178 → $1.3k → $479 → $359 → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 5% $5.9k (exactly $5,872)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 43
Announced 12
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 68 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $480, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $5.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 2019 · $201k Skidaddle Skidoodle 2024 · $85k Hentai Mission Ukraine 2022 · $8.4k End of War 1945 2020 · EA · $7.6k FLASH OF THE BLADE X 2024 · $6.6k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BEARS, VODKA, BALALAIKA! 🐻 older $3.99 1,680 89% 50k $201k (exactly $201,096) Rabotiagi games
Skidaddle Skidoodle older $29.99 94 91% 2.8k $85k (exactly $84,572) Galactic Geckon
Hentai Mission Ukraine older $1.99 140 91% 4.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,358) Who We Are Games
End of War 1945 · EA older $14.99 17 76% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) The 45th Division
FLASH OF THE BLADE X older $2.99 74 94% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) DOSMan Games
Cloud Keeper: Shrine of Dal · EA $6.99 28 100% 840 $5.9k (exactly $5,872) Jetpackgone
HENTAI: NAZI GIRL older $1.99 84 84% 2.5k $5.0k (exactly $5,015) DarkLight Studio
Enemy Engaged 2: Desert Operations older $8.99 15 40% 450 $4.0k (exactly $4,046) G2 Games
Sheriff Exam older $7.99 14 57% 420 $3.4k (exactly $3,356) ITC Studio
Deidthraw · EA older $4.99 20 80% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Matthew Glen
Moccoletti $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Consortium of Octopus
Nine Skies $3.99 12 100% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Ninefold
Ricochet Rodeo $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Echidna Studios
Sky Scramble $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) SpunjLabs
Project: KNOSSOS $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Ancient Pixel
For The Wheat $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Studio Sasta
Moby Click $3.99 3 33% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Drew VanWagner
Gods Of Fire $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Nest of Games
Medieval Archer Simulator · EA $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.