Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Gun Customization

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Gun Customization

Of 49 developers who shipped a Gun Customization Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×313 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 96 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 96 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Gun Customization
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $1.3k → $449 → $5.1k → $4.3k → $267 → $748 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Gun Customization: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $197k (exactly $196,677)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 140
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Gun Customization; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,574 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $960, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

MADNESS: Project Nexus 2021 · $12M Friends vs Friends 2023 · $3.3M VOID/BREAKER 2025 · EA · $2.3M Vox Machinae 2022 · $1.1M Worms Rumble 2020 · $764k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MADNESS: Project Nexus older $24.99 15,977 97% 479k $12M (exactly $11,977,957) GIBBING TREE, LLC
Friends vs Friends older $9.99 10,860 83% 326k $3.3M (exactly $3,254,742) Brainwash Gang
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Vox Machinae older $29.99 1,177 87% 35k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,947) Space Bullet Dynamics Corporation
Worms Rumble older $14.99 1,698 60% 51k $764k (exactly $763,591) Team17 Digital
Project Warlock II $16.99 1,233 80% 37k $628k (exactly $628,460) Buckshot Software
Black Ice · EA older $19.99 515 95% 15k $309k (exactly $308,846) Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garre… (Nonadecimal Creative, Super Duper Garrett Cooper)
Genome Guardian 2 · EA $15.99 410 95% 12k $197k (exactly $196,677) Alpherior
CyberCorp $14.99 351 75% 11k $158k (exactly $157,845) Megame LLC
Voidborn $12.99 349 81% 10k $136k (exactly $136,005) Xekvera
Galactic Vault $19.99 155 90% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) MeepMeep Games
Ogre Chambers 2222 $7.99 254 96% 7.6k $61k (exactly $60,884) ANTENNA GAMES
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Gunstoppable $12.49 58 81% 1.7k $22k (exactly $21,733) CAGE Studios
Gunforged $8.99 72 80% 2.2k $19k (exactly $19,418) Firebelley

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.