Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Futuristic

Of 112 developers who shipped a Futuristic Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 225 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 60 developers shipped in the last year and 225 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 225 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $413 → $270 → $1.4k → $360 → $837 → $987 → $510 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $199k (exactly $198,747)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 376
Announced 225
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Arcade
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 7,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 225 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

VOID/BREAKER 2025 · EA · $2.3M Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M ROBOBEAT 2024 · $1.0M SPRAWL 2023 · $882k TRIBES 3: Rivals 2024 · EA · $794k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VOID/BREAKER · EA $29.99 2,506 91% 75k $2.3M (exactly $2,254,648) Stubby Games
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
ROBOBEAT older $19.99 1,708 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,024,288) Simon Fredholm
SPRAWL older $14.99 1,961 87% 59k $882k (exactly $881,862) MAETH
TRIBES 3: Rivals · EA older $19.99 1,324 61% 40k $794k (exactly $794,003) Prophecy Games
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Cheaters Cheetah $9.99 1,406 59% 42k $421k (exactly $421,378) Acmore Games
Sektori $14.99 897 96% 27k $403k (exactly $403,381) Kimmo Lahtinen
Tesla vs Lovecraft older $14.99 851 89% 26k $383k (exactly $382,695) 10tons Ltd
BlazeRush older $9.99 1,031 88% 31k $309k (exactly $308,991) Targem Games
BRUTAL JOHN 2 · EA $12.99 546 94% 16k $213k (exactly $212,776) OldSchool Laws Team
BAIONLENJA · EA $12.99 510 97% 15k $199k (exactly $198,747) BAION
Galactic Vault $19.99 155 90% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) MeepMeep Games
W.A.N.D. Project $9.99 172 68% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) The Knights of Unity
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.