Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Fantasy

Of 103 developers who shipped a Fantasy Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 198 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $420, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 198 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 198 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $599 → $899 → $1.2k → $418 → $1.1k → $299 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $418 (exactly $418)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $48,551)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 301
Announced 198
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,717 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $420, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 198 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun 2023 · $10M Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition 2022 · $5.8M AMID EVIL 2019 · $4.0M Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok 2024 · $1.9M Ziggurat 2 2021 · $969k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
AMID EVIL older $19.99 6,654 93% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) Indefatigable
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
God Of Weapons older $5.99 4,807 84% 144k $864k (exactly $863,818) Imagine Games
Vellum $19.99 1,290 89% 39k $774k (exactly $773,613) Alvios Games
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
Bounty of One older $6.99 2,749 88% 82k $576k (exactly $576,465) OptizOnion
Frogmonster older $19.99 585 96% 18k $351k (exactly $350,824) Ben Jungwirth
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games
Nakara $9.99 310 91% 9.3k $93k (exactly $92,907) R3dspike
W.A.N.D. Project $9.99 172 68% 5.2k $52k (exactly $51,548) The Knights of Unity
Slyders $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) Kato Games
MeowGun: Hell Denizen $12.99 114 98% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,426) SusaDeBastet
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
Black Dragon Mage · EA $5.99 140 70% 4.2k $25k (exactly $25,158) datablob
Gunforged $8.99 72 80% 2.2k $19k (exactly $19,418) Firebelley

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.