Do I ship it?

Games › Arena Shooter › Arena Shooter + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Choices Matter

Of 28 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 15 developers shipped in the last year and 52 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $179 → $1.8k → $898 → $450 → $180 → $809 → $179 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Top 5% $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 80
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $8.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Ziggurat 2 2021 · $969k Titan Attacks! 2012 · $196k GHOSTWARE: Arena of the Dead 2024 · $95k #KILLALLZOMBIES 2016 · $77k Neon Sundown 2022 · $56k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ziggurat 2 older $24.99 1,292 90% 39k $969k (exactly $968,612) Milkstone Studios
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
GHOSTWARE: Arena of the Dead older $18.99 167 74% 5.0k $95k (exactly $95,140) Daev Team
#KILLALLZOMBIES older $9.99 258 78% 7.7k $77k (exactly $77,323) Fortell Games
Neon Sundown older $4.99 372 87% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Ben Nichols
Slyders $9.99 162 85% 4.9k $49k (exactly $48,551) Kato Games
Wasteland Angel older $4.99 135 56% 4.1k $20k (exactly $20,210) Octane Games
Kindred Fates: Combat Arena older $44.99 9 88% 270 $12k (exactly $12,147) Skymill Studios
Luminaria: Dark Echoes $9.99 30 86% 900 $9.0k (exactly $8,991) Enthariel Games
CowboysShowdown older $24.99 11 90% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Gamesforgames
ETERNAL EXILE: BENEATH THE DARKNESS $15.99 10 60% 300 $4.8k (exactly $4,797) AMNESIA
Russian Roulette: Online $4.99 25 56% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Hype Games
Bane Murrain · EA $8.99 13 100% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) CUPPAKILL
DEMON SIEGE $2.99 16 100% 480 $1.4k (exactly $1,435) The Jank Factory
Beyond The Space Wall $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Shader Mess
Casa De Diamantes $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) SoulPixel Studio
CORRUPT.EXE · EA $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) FORGE GAMES
Void Vanguards · EA $3.99 5 40% 150 $598 (exactly $598) Silvershard Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.