Do I ship it?

GamesPrecision PlatformerPrecision Platformer + Alternate History

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alternate-History Precision Platformer?

Precision Platformer + Alternate History

Only 7 developers shipped an Alternate-History Precision Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sheep Seeker, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×9.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $180 against a market of $630. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 18 announced, ×9.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Precision Platformer + Alternate History
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $20k → $418 → $150
Outcomes for Precision Platformer + Alternate History: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $358 (exactly $358)
Top 5% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 30
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Precision Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Alternate History
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Precision Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $180, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $6.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Precision Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DemonsFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  2. + FPSFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  3. + GothicFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 17 announced
  4. + HorrorFair68 devs · median $1.0k · 69 announced
  5. + Character CustomizationFair103 devs · median $748 · 116 announced
  6. + Perma DeathFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  7. + IdlerFair12 devs · median $657 · 6 announced
  8. + Action RoguelikeFair36 devs · median $629 · 38 announced
  9. + Time ManipulationFair22 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  10. + SandboxFair30 devs · median $537 · 21 announced
  11. + Procedural GenerationFair49 devs · median $449 · 42 announced
  12. + RPGFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced

All 123 pairs on the Precision Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Time Loader older $7.99 387 83% 12k $93k (exactly $92,764) Flazm
Aztech Forgotten Gods older $29.99 50 66% 1.5k $45k (exactly $44,985) Lienzo
Joe Wander and the Enigmatic Adventures older $29.99 48 79% 1.4k $43k (exactly $43,186) Frozen Pixel
AtmaSphere 2 older $4.99 146 79% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Mazen Games
Presentiment of Death older $14.99 45 71% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) XOCUS
Sheep Seeker $9.99 22 100% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KI… (Isaac MENARD, Luna GARCIN, Alexander KIRK, Séverin RICHARD, Matthieu FARROW, François HANUS, Quentin EUNG, Mattéo GLAIRON-MONDET, Lucas RENARD, Céline TRUONG)
Trash Bandits older $14.99 12 100% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) Crab Bucket Software
Stickit older $2.99 41 92% 1.2k $3.7k (exactly $3,678) Symfonim
Into the Sinkhole older $0.99 122 78% 3.7k $3.6k (exactly $3,623) cream
Mr.Bottle and his dream older $2.99 26 76% 780 $2.3k (exactly $2,332) BeyondTheWind
PlanckMan $1.99 6 100% 180 $358 (exactly $358) bl3i
Car May Fly · EA $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) carmayflystudio
POGO Epoch: Impossible 99% · EA $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) 힉학헉
Pizza Rogue: P.P.M.P.D.E.S. $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Seaweaver, Snowifer
Struggle $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Galactic Lake
Jumper · EA $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Antgrite

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.