Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Adventure

Of 157 developers who shipped an Adventure Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 233 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 72 developers shipped in the last year and 233 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 233 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 157
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $1.3k → $836 → $299 → $564 → $539 → $269 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 157
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $89,011)
Developers, 2 yr 157
Released games 585
Announced 233
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter, Adventure; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 19,974 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 111 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 233 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Serious Sam 4 older $39.99 15,612 83% 468k $19M (exactly $18,729,716) Croteam
Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun older $21.99 15,741 90% 472k $10M (exactly $10,384,338) Auroch Digital
Shadow Warrior 3: Definitive Edition older $39.99 4,820 69% 145k $5.8M (exactly $5,782,554) Flying Wild Hog
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Prodeus older $24.99 5,505 92% 165k $4.1M (exactly $4,127,098) Bounding Box Software Inc.
AMID EVIL older $19.99 6,654 93% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,990,404) Indefatigable
HARD BULLET · EA older $19.99 5,860 83% 176k $3.5M (exactly $3,514,242) GexagonVR
Quake 4 older $14.99 3,115 87% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,400,816) RavenSoft, id Software
Rollerdrome older $29.99 1,486 91% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,336,954) Roll7
Half-Life Deathmatch: Source older $9.99 4,361 74% 131k $1.3M (exactly $1,306,992) Valve
BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT $4.99 7,743 97% 232k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,127) Joeveno
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
BRUTAL JOHN 2 · EA $12.99 546 94% 16k $213k (exactly $212,776) OldSchool Laws Team
CyberCorp $14.99 351 75% 11k $158k (exactly $157,845) Megame LLC
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Devilated $19.99 163 85% 4.9k $98k (exactly $97,751) Trunka
Beyond Sunset $9.99 297 77% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) Metacorp / Vaporware
Iron Core: Mech Survivor $6.99 352 73% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Soda Game Studio
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.