Do I ship it?

GamesSettingsWerewolves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Werewolf game?

Werewolves

Of 88 developers who shipped a Werewolf game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 156 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $510; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×350 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 156 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 156 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Werewolves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 88
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $1.9k → $5.2k → $7.3k → $2.6k → $1.7k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Werewolves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 88
Bottom 30% $505 (exactly $505)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,097)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,225)
Top 5% $166k (exactly $166,402)
Developers, 2 yr 88
Released games 290
Announced 156
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Werewolves
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,361 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $510, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $510. 8 in 10 of the 54 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 156 games are announced against 51 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Werewolves

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Werewolves has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Raging Loop older $29.99 10,568 95% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) KEMCO
Town of Salem older $4.99 30,882 88% 926k $4.6M (exactly $4,623,035) BlankMediaGames
Disciples: Liberation older $39.99 2,706 73% 81k $3.2M (exactly $3,246,388) Frima Studio
Werewolf: The Apocalypse - Earthblood older $29.99 1,463 69% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,316,261) Cyanide Studio
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Darksburg older $14.99 1,656 63% 50k $745k (exactly $744,703) Shiro Games
Project Werewulf $29.99 778 83% 23k $700k (exactly $699,967) FTRGameStudio
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Virgo Versus The Zodiac older $19.99 790 92% 24k $474k (exactly $473,763) Moonana
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Chronicles of the Wolf $19.99 417 82% 13k $250k (exactly $250,075) Migami Games
The Seven Realms: High Lathión $12.99 427 80% 13k $166k (exactly $166,402) SeptCloud Games
Werewolf: The Inner Beast $19.99 221 76% 6.6k $133k (exactly $132,534) FTRGameStudio
Monster College $9.99 435 95% 13k $130k (exactly $130,370) Monster Eye Games
Wolf Mate $6.99 613 93% 18k $129k (exactly $128,546) eTIRUe
Terrordrome - Reign of the Legends $19.99 168 72% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) Huracan Studio
No Socks RPG $9.99 286 92% 8.6k $86k (exactly $85,714) Spicyfuse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.