Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Walking Simulator?

Walking Simulator

Of 1,942 developers who shipped a Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,573 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×308 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 2,573 games are announced against 1,176 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 2,573 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,942
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.3k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,942
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $6.5k (exactly $6,458)
Top 5% $146k (exactly $146,457)
Developers, 2 yr 1,942
Released games 5,722
Announced 2,573
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Walking Simulator
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 125,677 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 1,200 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,573 games are announced against 1,176 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Walking Simulator

51 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Walking Simulator + Cyberpunk Dead $300 19 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016 · $263M theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017 · $102M A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M The Isle 2015 · EA · $67M The Long Dark 2017 · $66M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition older $39.99 219,271 94% 6.6M $263M (exactly $263,059,419) Bethesda Game Studios
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Hellblade: Senua's Sacrifice older $29.99 66,788 90% 2.0M $60M (exactly $60,089,164) Ninja Theory
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT older $39.99 49,837 91% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,789,449) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS
Firewatch older $19.99 93,690 90% 2.8M $56M (exactly $56,185,893) Campo Santo
Outlast older $14.99 104,353 96% 3.1M $47M (exactly $46,927,544) Red Barrels
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
DEATH STRANDING 2: ON THE BEACH $69.99 15,434 94% 463k $32M (exactly $32,406,770) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS, Nixxes Software
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Mouthwashing $12.99 34,353 95% 1.0M $13M (exactly $13,387,364) Wrong Organ
Echoes of Aincrad $69.99 4,108 47% 123k $8.6M (exactly $8,625,568) Game Studio Inc.
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Neva $19.99 9,343 93% 280k $5.6M (exactly $5,602,997) Nomada Studio
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
Mixtape $19.99 7,365 87% 221k $4.4M (exactly $4,416,790) Beethoven and Dinosaur
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
KARMA: The Dark World $24.99 3,963 90% 119k $3.0M (exactly $2,971,061) POLLARD STUDIO LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.