Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsVoxel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Voxel game?

Voxel

Of 256 developers who shipped a Voxel game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 537 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1394 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 537 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 537 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Voxel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 256
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $599 → $1.6k → $1.7k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Voxel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 256
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,490)
Top 5% $662k (exactly $661,958)
Developers, 2 yr 256
Released games 908
Announced 537
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Voxel
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 111,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 142 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 537 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Voxel

0 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Voxel has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
BattleBit Remastered · EA older $14.99 127,680 82% 3.8M $57M (exactly $57,417,696) SgtOkiDoki, Vilaskis, TheLiquidHorse
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Paint the Town Red older $19.99 29,141 96% 874k $17M (exactly $17,475,858) South East Games
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
LEGO® Worlds older $29.99 12,487 77% 375k $11M (exactly $11,234,554) TT Games, Traveller's Tales
Shadows of Doubt $24.99 14,646 82% 439k $11M (exactly $10,980,106) ColePowered Games
Echo Point Nova $24.99 7,521 96% 226k $5.6M (exactly $5,638,494) Greylock Studio
Town to City $29.99 6,193 97% 186k $5.6M (exactly $5,571,842) Galaxy Grove
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Lay of the Land $19.99 1,190 79% 36k $714k (exactly $713,643) Southern Cross Interactive
Orebound · EA $24.99 945 77% 28k $708k (exactly $708,466) Emberforge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.