Do I ship it?

GamesMoodsViolent

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Violent game?

Violent

Of 1,494 developers who shipped a Violent game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 3,208 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×1494 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 3,208 games are announced against 881 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 3,208 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Violent
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,494
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $3.9k → $2.2k → $2.5k → $2.3k → $1.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Violent: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,494
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,618)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,357)
Top 5% $938k (exactly $938,165)
Developers, 2 yr 1,494
Released games 6,863
Announced 3,208
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Violent
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 879,001 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $930k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 839 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 3,208 games are announced against 881 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Violent

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Violent has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
SILENT HILL 2 $69.99 43,367 94% 1.3M $91M (exactly $91,057,690) Bloober Team SA
The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered $49.99 59,690 76% 1.8M $90M (exactly $89,517,093) Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
SILENT HILL f $69.99 19,061 80% 572k $40M (exactly $40,022,382) NeoBards Entertainment Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.