Do I ship it?

GamesSettingsTranshumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist game?

Transhumanism

Of 117 developers who shipped a Transhumanist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1323 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 260 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 260 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 117
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.2k → $12k → $1.1k → $2.5k → $599 → $1.7k → $2.9k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 117
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,688)
Top 5% $628k (exactly $628,486)
Developers, 2 yr 117
Released games 312
Announced 260
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 33,999 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 58 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Transhumanism

0 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any

No pair with Transhumanism has 25 games yet.

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Bomb Rush Cyberfunk older $39.99 12,645 98% 379k $15M (exactly $15,170,206) Team Reptile
Caves of Qud $29.99 11,892 94% 357k $11M (exactly $10,699,232) Freehold Games
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Nobody Wants to Die older $24.99 5,818 83% 175k $4.4M (exactly $4,361,755) Critical Hit Games
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Daemon X Machina: Titanic Scion $69.99 1,838 63% 55k $3.9M (exactly $3,859,249) Marvelous Inc.
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
INCISION $14.99 997 85% 30k $448k (exactly $448,351) SmoothBrainDev
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.