Should I ship a Third-Person game?
Third Person
Of 3,564 developers who shipped a Third-Person game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7,494 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×1459 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 7,494 games are announced against 2,012 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $180 (exactly $180) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $9.6k (exactly $9,646) |
| Top 5% | $916k (exactly $916,133) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 3,564 |
| Released games | 12,009 |
| Announced | 7,494 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Third Person
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,725,604 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 2,219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7,494 games are announced against 2,012 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
All pairs with Third Person
No pair with Third Person has 25 games yet.
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
 | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
 | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Euro Truck Simulator 2 | older | $19.99 | 756,984 97% | 23M | $454M (exactly $453,963,305) | SCS Software |
 | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
 | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
 | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN | $39.99 | 129,476 83% | 3.9M | $155M (exactly $155,332,357) | FromSoftware, Inc. | |
 | SCUM | $44.99 | 98,554 74% | 3.0M | $133M (exactly $133,018,334) | Gamepires | |
 | Split Fiction | $49.99 | 78,378 97% | 2.4M | $118M (exactly $117,543,487) | Hazelight Studios | |
 | Stellar Blade™ | $59.99 | 61,289 93% | 1.8M | $110M (exactly $110,301,813) | SHIFT UP Corporation | |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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